The Bright Side of Rising Interest Rates

The Wall Street Journal has a useful interactive tool that can show investors how sensitive their government bond holdings are to changes in interest rates. For example, here’s what things would look like if rates rose 1% from current levels on a number of different sovereign bonds at different maturity levels: And here’s what would…

You Are Not Stanley Druckenmiller

“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades that he can easily walk away from the position. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear…

Could a Trump Presidency Lead to a Stock Market Bubble?

First of all let me say this — no one knows what’s going to happen based on last night’s election outcome. The people who have been wrong about this outcome for so long will be the same ones who will tell you exactly how it will play out from here. They will be wrong again….

Is a Starter Home One of the Worst Purchases You Can Make?

A few weeks ago I wrote about 10 purchases that are worth the money, but threw in a caveat about one of them — buying a house: I think the idea of buying a starter home is one of the worst moves you can make financially as a younger person. Buying a starter home will…

How Investors Develop Bad Habits

One of the hardest parts about investing is that prudent advice doesn’t always work. Risk management doesn’t always add value. Legitimate strategies can go long stretches where they don’t work very well. Diversification means you’ll always hate something in your portfolio. Junk stocks can outperform high quality companies depending on the starting prices and valuations….

Some Things That Haven’t Been Around Very Long

I just finished reading David McCullough’s critically acclaimed book, The Wright Brothers. Going into it I didn’t really know too much about the fascinating story beyond that historic first flight at Kitty Hawk in 1903. That first flight garnered little fanfare at the time (most people just didn’t believe it was possible), but the innovation that followed…

Don’t Be Afraid of All-Time Highs in the Stock Market

The S&P 500 last closed at an all-time high in mid-August. We’re only 3-4% away from that number and stocks haven’t done much lately, but many investors become very nervous when they hear about all-time highs in the market. After all, the S&P 500 got cut in half following all-time highs in early-2000 and late-2007. Therefore,…

The Frog-in-a-Pot Theory of Investing

“High prices attract buyers, low prices attract sellers.” There are generally two reasons for a given investment strategy to “work” over time: You earn a premium by accepting more risk. You take advantage of the behavior of other market participants. If I put my rational, textbook theory cap on, number one should make sense. But there’s…

Celebrities & Loss Aversion

If I had to pick just one behavioral bias to help understand why people make the decisions that they do it would be loss aversion. Daniel Kahneman’s research discovered that people regret losses around twice as much as gains make them feel good. Some people will look at these types of biases and conclude that…

Faulty Wall Street Assumptions

Investors have to take some personal responsibility for their own actions, but one of the reasons so many people struggle with their investments is because many in the field of finance tend to perpetuate myths, rules of thumb and assumptions that just aren’t true. Here are some that come to mind that can be harmful…