Some thoughts on the relationship between gold, stocks and inflation.
Market History
3% Stock Market Returns For the Next Decade?
The U.S. stock market has been on fire of late. But it doesn’t feel like we’ve entered the euphoric phase of investor psychology just yet. In fact, many prognosticators have been lowering expectations. Goldman Sachs put out a research piece that posits the S&P 500 could return just 3% annualized over the next 10 years…
Long-Term Stock Market Averages
How average returns change by holding period.
Defining Bull and Bear Markets
Cyclical and secular bull and bear markets.
Rate Cuts & Historical Market Analogues
Fed rate cuts with the stock market at all-time highs.
31 Years of Stock Market Returns
Historical returns for the S&P 500 from 1993-2023.
Timing the Stock Market Using Valuations
Can you use valuations to time the stock market?
The 60/40 Portfolio Win Rate
A historical look at the win rate for the 60/40 portfolio over various time frames.
Flash Crashes Are Getting Faster
Why flash crashes are becoming more common.
This is Normal
Some thoughts on stock market corrections.
