Ben Carlson

What if Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?

“You cannot manage outcomes, you can only manage risks.” – Peter Bernstein Last week Josh Brown laid out a really unique theory at The Reformed Broker with The Relentless Bid, Explained. The main takeaway from that piece is that there always seem to be a bid under the market when stocks drop because the investment advice…

The Origins of Economic Terminology

“If you asked someone on the street 100 years ago, ‘How’s the economy doing?’ They wouldn’t have had any idea what you were talking about.” – Jacob Goldstein, Planet Money

An Ode to March 9, 2009

“If you’re emotional then you’ll buy at the top when everybody is euphoric and prices are high. Also, you’ll sell at the bottom when everybody is depressed and prices are low.” – Howard Marks

Euphoria: It’s So Hot Right Now

“When a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is time for caution.” – Galbraith

Millennials & The New Death of Equities

The infamous 1979 Businessweek cover story entitled “The Death of Equities” is widely viewed as one of the best contrarian indicators of all-time. Stocks went on to have one of the greatest bull markets in history not too long after this story was published. But when I read through the original article recently I was…

The Way Way Back of Market Cycles

“Be very careful using the past to understand the future. Past multiples are only relevant to the degree to which the underlying drivers of value are consistent through time. In fact, many of these drivers have changed, greatly diminishing the utility of past averages.” – Michael Mauboussin In keeping with my recent theme about the…