Ben Carlson

Bond Returns and Rising Interest Rates

Here’s an interesting chart from the Wall Street Journal: I’ve seen variations of this one before, but it makes sense to re-visit this type of data so you can prepare yourself for possible future bond returns. It’s pretty telling how closely future 10 year returns track the bond yield. It’s not perfect, but definitely a…

What if Long-Term Thinking Really Catches On?

“You cannot manage outcomes, you can only manage risks.” – Peter Bernstein Last week Josh Brown laid out a really unique theory at The Reformed Broker with The Relentless Bid, Explained. The main takeaway from that piece is that there always seem to be a bid under the market when stocks drop because the investment advice…

The Origins of Economic Terminology

“If you asked someone on the street 100 years ago, ‘How’s the economy doing?’ They wouldn’t have had any idea what you were talking about.” – Jacob Goldstein, Planet Money NPR’s Planet Money recently aired an interesting segment called The Invention of the Economy. It discusses the fact that talking about “The Economy” at large…

An Ode to March 9, 2009

“If you’re emotional then you’ll buy at the top when everybody is euphoric and prices are high. Also, you’ll sell at the bottom when everybody is depressed and prices are low.” – Howard Marks

Euphoria: It’s So Hot Right Now

“When a mood of excitement pervades a market or surrounds an investment prospect, when there is a claim of unique opportunity based on special foresight, all sensible people should circle the wagons; it is time for caution.” – Galbraith

Millennials & The New Death of Equities

The infamous 1979 Businessweek cover story entitled “The Death of Equities” is widely viewed as one of the best contrarian indicators of all-time. Stocks went on to have one of the greatest bull markets in history not too long after this story was published. But when I read through the original article recently I was…