Ben Carlson

Millennials & The New Death of Equities

The infamous 1979 Businessweek cover story entitled “The Death of Equities” is widely viewed as one of the best contrarian indicators of all-time. Stocks went on to have one of the greatest bull markets in history not too long after this story was published. But when I read through the original article recently I was…

The Way Way Back of Market Cycles

“Be very careful using the past to understand the future. Past multiples are only relevant to the degree to which the underlying drivers of value are consistent through time. In fact, many of these drivers have changed, greatly diminishing the utility of past averages.” – Michael Mauboussin In keeping with my recent theme about the…

The Curious Case of John Hussman: Understanding the Biases in Your Process

“We have no control over outcomes, but we can control the process. Of course, outcomes matter, but by focusing our attention on process we maximize our chances of good outcomes.” – Michael Mauboussin Barry Ritholtz wrote a great column for the Washington Post recently on an important topic that investors must understand to be successful…

What if You Only Invested at Market Peaks?

Meet Bob. Bob is the world’s worst market timer. What follows is Bob’s tale of terrible timing of his stock purchases. Bob began his career in 1970 at age 22. He was a diligent saver and planner. His plan was to save $2,000 a year during the 1970s and bump that amount up by $2,000…

On the Merits of Being a Financial Historian

“You can’t predict. You can prepare.” – Howard Marks I received a decent amount of comments and questions on my recent post on the 60/40 portfolio. Some were constructive, but others missed the point so I thought I would take the time to clarify a few things. These are my thoughts on using historical data to…